Chamber FX – August Update
Date published:
Our Chamber FX partners Moneycorp have provided us with an FX market update for August:
Big shock to markets in August – What happened?
The month of August has started off with a big shock to global financial markets – the US Federal Reserve are likely to cut rates much quicker than previously thought, with something like 1.00 – 1.25% of cuts this year now on the cards to bring rates down to 4.25 – 4.50%.
That is up significantly from the 0.50% cut priced in as recently at Wednesday 31st July.
This is the result of poor US jobs data – non-farm payrolls – and higher unemployment figures, leading to fears of a US recession building.
Additionally, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 0.15% and the Bank of England cut rates by 0.25% last week, feeding into the overall market volatility globally.
What has been the market reaction?
We have entered a “risk off” period due to the rapid change of interest rate expectations in the US, meaning everyone is taking their risky investments off the table.
This means stock markets have fallen significantly since Thursday (1st August), with the S&P 500 down 6.8%, FTSE 100 down 3.1%, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 down almost 17% before recovering today.
Usually in risk off periods, the US Dollar is the go-to investment as a safe-haven, however as this is driven by US interest rates the US dollar has also fallen between 1-2% against most other currencies and instead Euro, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen have been bought, rapidly strengthening those currencies.
- GBPEUR is down 1.5% since Friday 2nd.
- EURUSD is up 1% since Friday 2nd but has been 2% up earlier.
- GBPCHF is down 2.6% since Friday 2nd.
- GBPJPY is down 3.3% since Friday 2nd.
What next?
There are no major central bank meetings for the remainder of August, so the FX market will be reacting very quickly off the economic data releases, especially from the US.
Planning ahead for FX volatility and wondering how to best manage your FX risk?
With the recent market shock discussed above, financial market volatility has reached a peak not seen since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
If you have any questions or would like to know how to reduce your FX risk and/or make the most of the potential volatility coming up in August, please contact our business support and sponsorship manager, [email protected].