Moneycorp Currency Insights: March 2026 – What’s Happening and What It Means for You

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With UK political uncertainty rising and global geopolitical tensions reshaping risk sentiment, currency markets are showing notable shifts that could directly affect client exposure and decision‑making. Below is a concise overview of what’s impacting GBP, USD and EUR and what you should be looking out for:

GBP – Political Uncertainty Keeps the Pound Under Pressure

  • The pound struggled through February as UK politics became more unsettled.
  • Questions around the government and ongoing pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer created uncertainty.
  • Labour losses in Gorton and Denton made markets nervous about political stability.
  • When politics feels shaky, the pound usually weakens because investors prefer safer options.

USD – Strong Data and Safe‑Haven Demand Support the Dollar

  • American economic data was stronger than expected, showing the U.S. economy is holding up well.
  • The Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate cuts may not come soon, which usually supports the dollar.
  • Political news added uncertainty, including a Supreme Court ruling overturning President Trump’s broad tariff powers. The White House responded by proposing a new 10% global tariff, adding further uncertainty to global trade.
  • The escalation between the U.S. and Iran has shaken global markets – In periods of geopolitical stress, investors typically move into the Dollar as a safe‑haven currency.

EUR – Mixed Picture as Europe Balances Weak Data and Geopolitical Risks

  • Economic data across Europe was on the weaker side, especially in Germany.
  • The European Central Bank are being cautious – inflation is falling, but higher oil prices and geopolitical risks could delay any rate cuts.
  • Europe is more exposed to energy prices and Middle East tensions, which can make the euro more volatile.

What This Means for your Clients

GBP/USD

GBP > USD: USD is being supported by safe‑haven demand, strong US data and rising oil prices. This could keep USD more expensive, so clients may want to consider hedging or staggering purchases.

USD > GBP: Current Dollar strength and UK political uncertainty is offering more attractive pricing levels to sell into GBP.

GBP/EUR

GBP > EUR: UK political instability is weighing on GBP, making EUR relatively firmer. This could mean higher costs for EUR buyers if GBP continues to react to domestic headlines.

EUR > GBP: Sellers may find attractive pricing levels if GBP remains pressured, especially in periods of heightened UK political noise.

GBP/CAD

GBP > CAD: CAD tends to strengthen when oil prices rise, so ongoing Middle East tensions may push CAD higher. Buyers could face rising purchase costs if oil prices continue to rise.

CAD > GBP: Stronger oil‑linked currencies are likely to increase in price as conflict continues, which offer opportunities to lock in favourable rates against GBP, especially if geopolitical risk persists.

EUR/USD  

EUR > USD: Conditions have become less favourable as USD strength pushes EURUSD lower.

USD > EUR: This environment may offer opportunities to convert USD into EUR at more attractive rates.

Have upcoming international payments or FX exposure, and want to know how you can optimise your currency strategy in light of current market conditions? Speak to the Moneycorp team today and receive your complimentary FX strategy report.

(This commentary does not constitute, nor should be construed as, financial advice.)

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